NFL Mock Draft Database: No Clear Leader at First Pick

Updated: February 13, 2014

The Web’s original NFL Mock Draft Database now lists a whopping 287 mock drafts.  In our fourteenth year of compiling mock drafts, our objectives remain the same — list the most mock drafts we can for your convenience.  We certainly appreciate the volumes of websites, blogs, and media that bring mock draft projections to you.  Our sites listed range from national media, to the main site, to websites set up for draft coverage, to fan blogs, to team specific blogs, to general sports blogs, and to individual blogs.

It’s been suggested at times that we narrow our database to only media and well establish draft sites.  That won’t happen.  That defeats the objective we set out for 14 years to go to bring the most mock drafts we could find.   One thing we take pride in is our Consensus articles.  We work hard to munch these mocks together to get consensus leaders.  We also take pride in the accuracy of those munched projections come draft day.   Some people mock the mocks, but fact is, many of them can be extremely accurate.  Just like political polls, to all are spot on, but some are surprisingly accurate. The beauty of mock draft projections.

At times, we will take recent mock drafts and munch them all together to come up with consensus leaders for each of the top 5 draft selections.  We did that today.  Included in this mock draft munch is all the mock drafts updated between February 9 and February 13.  Combined we munched together 52 mock drafts.

Stay tuned post NFL Combine.  At times, these mock drafts change pretty significantly after the Combine.


Pick One:  The Houston Texans

The Consensus Pick:  QB Teddy Bridgewater  -  30%

Comments:  In prior years, the further along the Top 5 we went, the higher the percentage of projections.  Not this year.  The mock drafts are clearly split with the Houston Texans pick.  Right now, Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater is the projection leader, but with only 30% of mocks projecting him to go to the Texans.  That equates to 16 of the 52 mocks.   Running close behind are QB Blake Bortles (13 mocks), DE Jadeveon Clowney (12 mocks), and QB Johnny Manziel (10 mocks).  Although Bridgewater leads with 30% of the mocks projecting him to the Texans, he is far from a consensus pick.

Pick Two:  The St. Louis Rams

The Consensus Pick:  OT Jake Matthews   –  35%

Comments:  The Rams are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and have two first round picks, including the second overall pick via the Washington Redskins.   35% of the mock drafts project the Rams to take OT Jake Matthews, who most NFL Draft experts have ranked as the best left tackle in the draft.  Many mock drafts that project quarterback here have the Rams trading the pick.  We will begin including the letter “T” in the next updates to show you where mocks are projecting trades.  If the Rams stay put and do not take a tackle, a good bet would then be DE Jadeveon Clowney.  Right now, Matthews leads with 18 of the 52 mocks projecting him to the Rams.  He is followed by Clowney (13 mocks) and OT Greg Robinson (9 mocks).  Watch Robinson here.  He is picking up more and more projections in the Top 5.

Pick Three:  The Jacksonville Jaguars

The Consensus Pick:  QB Teddy Bridgewater   –  38%

Comments:  Most mock drafts project Jacksonville to take a quarterback, as they should.  Bridgewater is the favorite here with 38% of mock drafts projecting him third overall.  That makes 36 of the 52 mock drafts projecting Bridgewater to either go first or third overall.  Jacksonville desperate needs to hit gold with this pick after completely flopping a few years ago with Blaine Gabbert.  DE Jadeveon Clowney (12 mocks) and QB Johnny Manziel (10 mocks) trail Bridgewater.

Pick Four:  The Cleveland Browns

The Consensus Pick:  OT Jake Matthews   –  35%

Comments:   This team is a mess.  From the top to the bottom, the Browns are amassed up franchise.  However, they do have three picks in the top thirty-five selections, starting here at four.  The Browns will likely go quarterback.  40% of the mocks project the Browns to select Texas A & M quarterback Johnny Manziel.  Cleveland has a new offensive coordinator in Kyle Shanahan and Shanahan will likely be given another young quarterback to develop.  However, the Browns could pull off a trade, given three picks in the first two rounds, and acquire QB Kirk Cousins from the Redskins, whom Shanahan liked in DC.  That would open this pick up.  Following Manziel, Bortles lands second here with 10 mocks and then wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Pick Five:  The Oakland Raiders

The Consensus Pick:  WR Sammy Watkins   –  38%

Comments:  With three of the top quarterbacks possible off the board, Raiders could go for whichever left tackle is not taken, or if Clowney falls, he could be a Raider.  In the mock munch, 38% have Oakland taking WR Sammy Watkins.  The rest of the picks are lo numbers based on if any of the three big QBs, Bridgewater, Bortles, or Manziel fall.


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