Our Presidential Electoral Vote Tracker

[PennSkinsFan]

CURRENT: Barack Obama: 303 Mitt Romney: 235
NEED 270 TO WIN


FINAL ELECTORAL PROJECTION: 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

OBAMA SAFE/STRONG

California (55 electoral votes)
Delaware (3 electoral votes)
District of Columbia (3 electoral votes)
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
Illinois (20 electoral votes)
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Massachusetts (11 electoral votes)
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
New Jersey (14 electoral votes)
New York (29 electoral votes)
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
Washington (12 electoral votes)
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Oregon (7 electoral votes)

LEAN OBAMA

Colorado (9 electoral votes) Obama +6 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/4), TIE (11/4), Romney +2 (11/3), Obama +2 (11/2), Obama +4 (11/2), TIE (11/2), Romney +1 (11/2), Obama +2 (11/1), Obama +1 (11/1), Romney +3 (11/1), AVG: Obama +.9

Iowa (6 electoral votes) Obama +1 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), Obama +5 (11/3), Obama +3 (11/3), Obama +4 (11/2), Obama +3 (11/1), Obama +6 (11/1) AVG: Obama +3.4

Michigan (16 electoral votes) Obama +7 (11/4) TIE (11/4), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +6 (11/2), Obama +5 (11/2), Obama +8 (11/1), Obama +8 (10/31) AVG: Obama +5.7

Nevada (6 electoral votes) Obama +4 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/1), Obama +4 (11/1), Obama +6 (10/28) AVG: Obama +5.0

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Obama +4 (11/5), TIE (11/5) Obama +5 (11/4), Obama +5 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), TIE (11/3), Obama +6 (11/2), Obama +2 (11/1) AVG: Obama +3.4

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) Obama +3 (11/5), Obama +8 (11/4), TIE (11/4), Obama +3 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +4 (10/31) AVG: Obama +4.0

Ohio (18 electoral votes) Obama +5 (11/5), Obama +2 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +3 (11/5), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/5), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +8 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), Obama +3 (11/4), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +4 (11/3), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +1 (11/3), Obama +4(11/3), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +3 (11/2), Obama +4 (11/2), Obama +2 (11/2), Obama +6 (11/1) AVG: Obama +4.0

Virginia (13 electoral votes) Obama +8 (11/5), Romney +2 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), Obama +1 (11/4), Obama +3 (11/3), Obama +1 (11/3), Obama +5 (11/2), +2 Obama (11/1), Obama +3 (11/1), Obama +3 (11/1), Romney +1 (11/1), AVG: Obama +2.4

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +7 (11/3), Obama +3 (11/3), Obama +5), Obama +7 (11/2), Obama +9 (11/1), Obama +3 (11/1), TIE (11/1) AVG: Obama +4.3


ROMNEY SAFE/STRONG

Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Montana (3 electoral votes)
Nebraska (1 electoral vote)
South Carolina (9 electoral votes)
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Alaska (3 electoral votes)
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Idaho (4 electoral votes)
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Louisiana (8 electoral votes)
Mississippi (6 electoral votes)
Missouri (10 electoral votes)
Nebraska (4 electoral votes)
North Dakota (3 electoral votes)
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Texas (38 electoral votes)
Utah (6 electoral votes)
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Wyoming (3 electoral votes)

LEAN ROMNEY

Arizona (11 electoral votes) Romney +7 (11/2), Obama +2 (10/13), Romney +9 (10/3) AVG: Romney +4.6

Florida (29 electoral votes) Obama +5 (11/5), Romney +2 (11/5), Romney +5 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Romney +2 (11/5), Obama +2 (11/4), Romney +2 (11/4), Romney +1 (11/4), Obama +1(11/4), Obama +2 (11/3), TIE (11/3), Romney +6 (11/3), Obama +2 (11/3), Obama +2 (11/2), Obama +1 (11/1), TIE (11/1), AVG: TIE

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) TIE (11/5), Romney +2 (11/4), Romney +1 (11/1), TIE, (10/31), TIE (10/28), Romney +1 (10/26) AVG: Romney +.6


FINAL 2012 US SENATE PROJECTIONS: DEM: 52 GOP 46 INDEP: 2

Contested Seats: GOP 10, DEM 21
Open Seats: GOP 4, DEM 6

SAFE DEM: CA, DE, FLA, HAW, MD, MICH, MN, NJ, NY, RI, WA, WV

DEMOCRAT WIN

Connecticut: Current: DEM (retirement) - Murphy (D), McMahon (R) - Murphy +9 (11/2), Murphy +6 (10/28), Murphy +6 (10/25), Murphy +6 (10/23), Murphy +2 (10/23), Murphy +5 (10/23), Murphy +7 (10/18), Murphy +6 (10/9)

Indiana: Current: GOP (retirement) - Donnelly (D), Mourdock (R) - Donnelly +3 (11/3), Donnelly +11 (11/2), Mourdock +1 (10/28), TIE (10/26), Donnelly +7 (10/26), Donnelly +2 (10/24), Mourdock +5 (10/15), Donnelly +1 (9/27) OPEN GOP SEAT

Massachusetts: Current GOP (Sen. Brown)[/B] Warren +4 (11/4), Warren +6 (11/2), Warren +7 (10/30), Brown +2 (10/28), Warren +5 (10/27), Warren +6 (10/23), Warren +9 (10/18), Warren +6 (10/12)

Michigan: Current: DEM Incumbent - Stabenow (D), Hoekstra (R) - Stabenow +15 (9/17), Stabenow +6 (9/16)

Missouri: Current: DEM Incumbent - McCaskill (D), Akin (R) -McCaskill +15 (11/5), McCaskill +4 (11/4), McCaskill +3 (10/31), McCaskill+2 (10/27), McCaskill +13 (10/27), McCaskill +6 (10/21), McCaskill +7 (10/19), McCaskill +6 (10/3), McCaskill +6 (10/3), McCaskill +6 (10/3)

Montana: Current: DEM incumbent - Tester (D) Rehberg (R) - Tester +2 (11/4), Tester +1 (11/2), Tester +2 (10/28), Tester +2 (10/17), TIE (10/17), Rehberg +3 (9/23)

New Mexico: Current: DEM (retirement) - Heinrich (D), Wilson (R) - Heinrich +8 (10/29), Heinrich +7 (10/26), Heinrich +10 (10/1)

Ohio: Current: DEM incumbent - Brown (D), Mandel (R) - Brown +3 (11/5), Brown +10 (11/4), Brown +6 (11/4), Brown +5 (11/3), Brown +9 (10/31), Brown +2 (10/31), Brown +11 (10/28), Brown +1 (10/28) Brown +9 (10/22), Brown +5 (10/20), Brown +5 (10/18)

Pennsylvania: Current: DEM Incumbent Casey (D) v. Smith (R) - Caey +6 (11/4), Casey +1 (11/4), Casey +8 (11/3), Casey +10 (10/31), Casey +7 (10/27), Casey (+1) (10/26), Casey +12 (10/25), Casey +8 (10/22), Casey +13 (10/19), Smith +4 (10/17) Casey +7 (10/16), Casey +3 (10/16)

Virginia: Current: DEM (retirement) Kaine (D) v. Allen (R) - Kaine +4 (11/5), Kaine +3 (11/5), Kaine +2 (11/5), Kaine +6 (11/4), Kaine +4 (10/31), Allen +5 (10/31), Kaine +7 (10/28), Allen +2 (10/27), Kaine +1 (10/26), Kaine +1 (10/21), Kaine +5 (10/18)

Wisconsin: Current: DEM (retirement) Baldwin (D) v. Thompson (R) - Baldwin +3 (11/3), TIE (11/2), Baldwin +1 (11/1), Baldwin +4 (10/31), Thompson +1 (10/28), Baldwin +4 (10/19), Thompson +1 (10/16), Baldwin +4 (10/

SAFE GOP: MISS, TN, TX, UT, WY

GOP WIN

Arizona: Current: GOP (retirement) - Carmona (D), Flake (R) - Flake +5 (11/4), Flake +6 (10/25), Carmona +4 (10/24), Carmona +4 (10/13), Carmona (+2 (10/3)

Nevada: Current: GOP Incumbent - Berkley (D), Heller (R) - Heller +2 (11/5), Heller +6 (10/31), Heller +1 (10/28), Heller +3 (10/25), Heller +5 (10/25), TIE (10/24), Heller +7 (10/17)

North Dakota: Current: GOP Incumbent - Heitkamp (D), Berg (R) - Berg +2 (10/30), Berg +5 (10/23), Berg +10 (10/20), TIE (10/8)

[PennSkinsFan]

New polls released today have Obama leading by 5 in VIRG and 11 in PA

[ISF]

Iowa returned to a GOP governor after 12 years of Democrats (Vilsack and Culver), I think this state could (and hopefully does) go Red in 2012.

[PennSkinsFan]

Iowa returned to a GOP governor after 12 years of Democrats (Vilsack and Culver), I think this state could (and hopefully does) go Red in 2012.

I think you are right. We will keep it in Toss Up status until we see poll shifting, but I agree, I think Iowa could go back to Red.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have our first move from the Tracker. We have moved New Hampshire from Lean Obama to Toss up. However, Virginia could be moving soon. Virginia is currently a Toss up, but three consecutive polls have show Obama leading +5, +5, and +6. That is getting very close to no longer being Toss Up status. We are also moving Pennsylvania from Lean Obama to Safe Obama. The three latest polls show Obama up +11, +11, +9.

[PennSkinsFan]

2 shifts mark a net gain of +4 for President Obama. We have moved Nevada from Lean Obama to Toss Up, a loss of 6 electoral votes. However, given the recent polls 9ver the last three days, we move Wisconsin from Toss Up to Lean Obama, that is 10 EVs. That is a net gain of 4 EV for Obama.

[PennSkinsFan]

Added US Senate battlegrounds.

[PennSkinsFan]

Obama jump 6 EVs as Nevada moves from Toss Up to Lean Obama.

[PennSkinsFan]

I big flip this morning. With a new Quinnipiac poll showing Obama +10 in Ohio, that is affirming other recent polls that Ohio has slipped away from Romney, out of toss up, and into lean Obama. Quinnipiac is also affirming some other polls that are showing a widening of Obama lead in Florida. Today's Florida poll has Obama +9. Finally, Quinnipiac poll on Pennsylvania affirms what the last 5 PA polls have shown, PA is getting pretty safe for Obama, another double digit lead. Romney internals must be showing the same thing since his campaign and SUPER PACS affiliated with Romney have pulled TV out of PA. Unfortunately for Romney, he can't rely on the Governor in PA to help out. Gov. Corbett has a mere 26% approval rating.

[PennSkinsFan]

Another state to keep an eye on is Arizona. With Battlegrounds shrinking and Obama gaining commanding lead in once battle grounds like Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio, the Obama campaign is looking to start spending cash in Arizona.