RGIII: By the Numbers . . .

[SkinsGuru]

Source (Washington Post):

Seven point one. That’s Robert Griffin III’s net adjusted yards per pass attempt, which accounts for sack yardage and docks 45 yards for each interception. That number by itself may not mean much, but it’s the very best in the league so far—better than the total compiled by Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and everyone else.

First we’ll look at Expect Points Added (EPA), a stat that measures productivity according to the down/distance/yard line situation. Griffin ranks 5th in the league with 0.24 EPA generated per play–passes, runs, and scrambles included. Fellow rookie Andrew Luck is 12th, and Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weedon, and Russell Wilson rank 30th through 32nd.

SR simply measures the proportion of plays that make it more likely, rather than less likely, that a player’s team will score. Griffin is 9th in SR at 52%, well above average. The fact that he is 5th in total production (EPA) but 9th in SR indicates his production is coming disproportionately from big plays rather than long strings of short gains. Luck is 17th in SR, Wilson is 22nd, Tannehill is 30th, and Weedon is 32nd.

It largely measures heroics, because it is highly context sensitive, accounting for score and time remaining. Griffin is 16th in the league with 0.19 WPA/Game. This means that Griffin’s performance (in concert with the rest of the offense) would, on average, take an otherwise average 8-win team and make it into an 11-win team. In full disclosure, that’s a little overstated because of how offenses have taken a firm upper hand over defenses in the last couple of years. Luck tops the rookie class with 0.32 WPA over 3 games and is 4th overall. Tannehill is 28th, Wilson is 32nd, and Weedon is 33rd.

Griffin is clearly moving the ball with both his arm and legs. He has generated just over 30 net EPA (net points) on pass plays and more than 13 net EPA on designed runs and scrambles. On a per play basis, his runs and scrambles are more potent, and by a large margin–about 50%.

The only statistical weakness Griffin’s numbers show is a high reliance on receiver yards after catch (YAC). Although his overall pass efficiency leads the league, he is 13th in “Air Yards” per attempt–passing yardage minus receiver YAC. Of the quarterbacks who have 100 attempts through week 4, Griffin has the third highest percentage of YAC.

I know, I know . . . i can't stop talking about RGIII . . . it's been a very long time since the Skins have had a QB and i'm not sure there has ever been a QB quite like RGIII . . . that said . . . the above numbers indicate what we are all seeing week after week, that the rookie signal caller is playing well beyond his years . . . here is to his continued success!!

Thoughts??

[Spence]

I wrote about this today in Redskins Roundup. Not sure when the last time was we saw a rookie QB play like this in the first month of his pro career. He's obviously a dynamic playmaker, but what I like the most is the lack of mistakes and the focus on keeping his eyes downfield as much as possible. He doesn't run too much, he clearly prefers passing to running, and he stays away from killing errors. When crucial blunders have been committed by the offense this season it has been by veterans like Josh Morgan. RG3 will have a bad game or two eventually, but we are witnessing the formation of a new superstar in the NFL. It's pretty exciting because it is finally happening to us.