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It appears right now that the Debate bounce has held in some states and dissipated in others. Nevada and NH have become more competitive. However, the close pols in Ohio that were showing a Romney 1 or 2 point lead with THUR and FRI post debate callers, recent polls without those THUR and FRI calls are showing Obama at +2 to +4. Also, Virginia and Florida are remaining as consistent as prior tot he debate with Obama leading anywhere
between 1-3 points. It was like that prior tot he debate with a few outliers.
So while there is a clear post-debate bounce nationally, in some of the key swing state polls, we are seeing that bounce slip.
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We have moved the Florida Senate race from Lean DEM to Safe DEM. Recent polls are showing Dem Incumbent ill Nelson with double digit leads over Connie Mack. This one looks like it is in the bag.
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Up to 25,000 jobless claims in California were not included in the report. Apparently they came in too late, no worries they will be added in one of next two reports.
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Getting close to moving Ohio back to Lean Obama. Last few polls are showing Obama up 4 to 7 points. It appears, according to our polls we track and analysts, that Romney did not get a big debate bounce in Ohio. Possible because of the auto bailout,
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Obama loses 10 more. We have moved WISC from Lean Obama to Toss Up. The poll was taken before debate 2. Rasmussen Swing State poll has shown a daily tracker of swing states has changed 5 points over the last week. From 10/9 to 10/14, Romney had a consistent +2 after debate 1. Today the swing state trackers shows Obama +3. Yesterday it was at Obama +2. That's a five point swing and took the swing state tracker back to the same +3 as before. Rasmussen is a GOP leaning firm, so that is pretty significant. At least in the swing states, it appears the bounce may have dissipated. THis weekend, we will begin to see if Obama will receive any bounce from the second debate,
While we move WISC to Toss Up, we are one poll away from possibly moving Ohio back to Lean Obama and possibly moving Iowa to Lean Obama. The second debate may force those moves. We shall see.
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We have moved the Nevada Senate seat from Toss Up to Lean GOP. Looks like incumbent GOP Sen Heller is getting safer.
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We have moved an additional US Senate race, which would represent a DEM pick up. WE have moved MASS to Lean DEM. Elizabeth Warren is surging over GOP incumbent Scott Brown, now opening a 9 point lead.
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Mitt Romney picks up 15 EVs. We have moved NC from Toss Up to Lean Romney. We not have the race at 237 Obama -206 Romney, and 95 Toss Up
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Interesting. Wisconsin poll that had sample of 10/11 to 10/14 had Obama one point lead, new Wisconsin poll with sample from10/15 to 10/17, post debate, has Obama up 6
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Another debate bounce? Obama +4 in Iowa before debate, poll released tonight with all post debate sample has Obama jumping +8
