Our Presidential Electoral Vote Tracker

[PennSkinsFan]

CURRENT: Barack Obama: 303 Mitt Romney: 235
NEED 270 TO WIN


FINAL ELECTORAL PROJECTION: 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

OBAMA SAFE/STRONG

California (55 electoral votes)
Delaware (3 electoral votes)
District of Columbia (3 electoral votes)
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
Illinois (20 electoral votes)
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Massachusetts (11 electoral votes)
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
New Jersey (14 electoral votes)
New York (29 electoral votes)
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
Washington (12 electoral votes)
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Oregon (7 electoral votes)

LEAN OBAMA

Colorado (9 electoral votes) Obama +6 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/4), TIE (11/4), Romney +2 (11/3), Obama +2 (11/2), Obama +4 (11/2), TIE (11/2), Romney +1 (11/2), Obama +2 (11/1), Obama +1 (11/1), Romney +3 (11/1), AVG: Obama +.9

Iowa (6 electoral votes) Obama +1 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), Obama +5 (11/3), Obama +3 (11/3), Obama +4 (11/2), Obama +3 (11/1), Obama +6 (11/1) AVG: Obama +3.4

Michigan (16 electoral votes) Obama +7 (11/4) TIE (11/4), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +6 (11/2), Obama +5 (11/2), Obama +8 (11/1), Obama +8 (10/31) AVG: Obama +5.7

Nevada (6 electoral votes) Obama +4 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/1), Obama +4 (11/1), Obama +6 (10/28) AVG: Obama +5.0

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Obama +4 (11/5), TIE (11/5) Obama +5 (11/4), Obama +5 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), TIE (11/3), Obama +6 (11/2), Obama +2 (11/1) AVG: Obama +3.4

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) Obama +3 (11/5), Obama +8 (11/4), TIE (11/4), Obama +3 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +4 (10/31) AVG: Obama +4.0

Ohio (18 electoral votes) Obama +5 (11/5), Obama +2 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +3 (11/5), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/5), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +8 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), Obama +3 (11/4), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +4 (11/3), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +1 (11/3), Obama +4(11/3), Obama +6 (11/3), Obama +3 (11/2), Obama +4 (11/2), Obama +2 (11/2), Obama +6 (11/1) AVG: Obama +4.0

Virginia (13 electoral votes) Obama +8 (11/5), Romney +2 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +6 (11/4), Obama +2 (11/4), Obama +1 (11/4), Obama +3 (11/3), Obama +1 (11/3), Obama +5 (11/2), +2 Obama (11/1), Obama +3 (11/1), Obama +3 (11/1), Romney +1 (11/1), AVG: Obama +2.4

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Obama +1 (11/5), Obama +4 (11/4), Obama +7 (11/3), Obama +3 (11/3), Obama +5), Obama +7 (11/2), Obama +9 (11/1), Obama +3 (11/1), TIE (11/1) AVG: Obama +4.3


ROMNEY SAFE/STRONG

Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Montana (3 electoral votes)
Nebraska (1 electoral vote)
South Carolina (9 electoral votes)
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Alaska (3 electoral votes)
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Idaho (4 electoral votes)
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Louisiana (8 electoral votes)
Mississippi (6 electoral votes)
Missouri (10 electoral votes)
Nebraska (4 electoral votes)
North Dakota (3 electoral votes)
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Texas (38 electoral votes)
Utah (6 electoral votes)
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Wyoming (3 electoral votes)

LEAN ROMNEY

Arizona (11 electoral votes) Romney +7 (11/2), Obama +2 (10/13), Romney +9 (10/3) AVG: Romney +4.6

Florida (29 electoral votes) Obama +5 (11/5), Romney +2 (11/5), Romney +5 (11/5), Obama +1 (11/5), Romney +2 (11/5), Obama +2 (11/4), Romney +2 (11/4), Romney +1 (11/4), Obama +1(11/4), Obama +2 (11/3), TIE (11/3), Romney +6 (11/3), Obama +2 (11/3), Obama +2 (11/2), Obama +1 (11/1), TIE (11/1), AVG: TIE

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) TIE (11/5), Romney +2 (11/4), Romney +1 (11/1), TIE, (10/31), TIE (10/28), Romney +1 (10/26) AVG: Romney +.6


FINAL 2012 US SENATE PROJECTIONS: DEM: 52 GOP 46 INDEP: 2

Contested Seats: GOP 10, DEM 21
Open Seats: GOP 4, DEM 6

SAFE DEM: CA, DE, FLA, HAW, MD, MICH, MN, NJ, NY, RI, WA, WV

DEMOCRAT WIN

Connecticut: Current: DEM (retirement) - Murphy (D), McMahon (R) - Murphy +9 (11/2), Murphy +6 (10/28), Murphy +6 (10/25), Murphy +6 (10/23), Murphy +2 (10/23), Murphy +5 (10/23), Murphy +7 (10/18), Murphy +6 (10/9)

Indiana: Current: GOP (retirement) - Donnelly (D), Mourdock (R) - Donnelly +3 (11/3), Donnelly +11 (11/2), Mourdock +1 (10/28), TIE (10/26), Donnelly +7 (10/26), Donnelly +2 (10/24), Mourdock +5 (10/15), Donnelly +1 (9/27) OPEN GOP SEAT

Massachusetts: Current GOP (Sen. Brown)[/B] Warren +4 (11/4), Warren +6 (11/2), Warren +7 (10/30), Brown +2 (10/28), Warren +5 (10/27), Warren +6 (10/23), Warren +9 (10/18), Warren +6 (10/12)

Michigan: Current: DEM Incumbent - Stabenow (D), Hoekstra (R) - Stabenow +15 (9/17), Stabenow +6 (9/16)

Missouri: Current: DEM Incumbent - McCaskill (D), Akin (R) -McCaskill +15 (11/5), McCaskill +4 (11/4), McCaskill +3 (10/31), McCaskill+2 (10/27), McCaskill +13 (10/27), McCaskill +6 (10/21), McCaskill +7 (10/19), McCaskill +6 (10/3), McCaskill +6 (10/3), McCaskill +6 (10/3)

Montana: Current: DEM incumbent - Tester (D) Rehberg (R) - Tester +2 (11/4), Tester +1 (11/2), Tester +2 (10/28), Tester +2 (10/17), TIE (10/17), Rehberg +3 (9/23)

New Mexico: Current: DEM (retirement) - Heinrich (D), Wilson (R) - Heinrich +8 (10/29), Heinrich +7 (10/26), Heinrich +10 (10/1)

Ohio: Current: DEM incumbent - Brown (D), Mandel (R) - Brown +3 (11/5), Brown +10 (11/4), Brown +6 (11/4), Brown +5 (11/3), Brown +9 (10/31), Brown +2 (10/31), Brown +11 (10/28), Brown +1 (10/28) Brown +9 (10/22), Brown +5 (10/20), Brown +5 (10/18)

Pennsylvania: Current: DEM Incumbent Casey (D) v. Smith (R) - Caey +6 (11/4), Casey +1 (11/4), Casey +8 (11/3), Casey +10 (10/31), Casey +7 (10/27), Casey (+1) (10/26), Casey +12 (10/25), Casey +8 (10/22), Casey +13 (10/19), Smith +4 (10/17) Casey +7 (10/16), Casey +3 (10/16)

Virginia: Current: DEM (retirement) Kaine (D) v. Allen (R) - Kaine +4 (11/5), Kaine +3 (11/5), Kaine +2 (11/5), Kaine +6 (11/4), Kaine +4 (10/31), Allen +5 (10/31), Kaine +7 (10/28), Allen +2 (10/27), Kaine +1 (10/26), Kaine +1 (10/21), Kaine +5 (10/18)

Wisconsin: Current: DEM (retirement) Baldwin (D) v. Thompson (R) - Baldwin +3 (11/3), TIE (11/2), Baldwin +1 (11/1), Baldwin +4 (10/31), Thompson +1 (10/28), Baldwin +4 (10/19), Thompson +1 (10/16), Baldwin +4 (10/

SAFE GOP: MISS, TN, TX, UT, WY

GOP WIN

Arizona: Current: GOP (retirement) - Carmona (D), Flake (R) - Flake +5 (11/4), Flake +6 (10/25), Carmona +4 (10/24), Carmona +4 (10/13), Carmona (+2 (10/3)

Nevada: Current: GOP Incumbent - Berkley (D), Heller (R) - Heller +2 (11/5), Heller +6 (10/31), Heller +1 (10/28), Heller +3 (10/25), Heller +5 (10/25), TIE (10/24), Heller +7 (10/17)

North Dakota: Current: GOP Incumbent - Heitkamp (D), Berg (R) - Berg +2 (10/30), Berg +5 (10/23), Berg +10 (10/20), TIE (10/8)

[PennSkinsFan]

New polls released today have Obama leading by 5 in VIRG and 11 in PA

[ISF]

Iowa returned to a GOP governor after 12 years of Democrats (Vilsack and Culver), I think this state could (and hopefully does) go Red in 2012.

[PennSkinsFan]

Iowa returned to a GOP governor after 12 years of Democrats (Vilsack and Culver), I think this state could (and hopefully does) go Red in 2012.

I think you are right. We will keep it in Toss Up status until we see poll shifting, but I agree, I think Iowa could go back to Red.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have our first move from the Tracker. We have moved New Hampshire from Lean Obama to Toss up. However, Virginia could be moving soon. Virginia is currently a Toss up, but three consecutive polls have show Obama leading +5, +5, and +6. That is getting very close to no longer being Toss Up status. We are also moving Pennsylvania from Lean Obama to Safe Obama. The three latest polls show Obama up +11, +11, +9.

[PennSkinsFan]

2 shifts mark a net gain of +4 for President Obama. We have moved Nevada from Lean Obama to Toss Up, a loss of 6 electoral votes. However, given the recent polls 9ver the last three days, we move Wisconsin from Toss Up to Lean Obama, that is 10 EVs. That is a net gain of 4 EV for Obama.

[PennSkinsFan]

Added US Senate battlegrounds.

[PennSkinsFan]

Obama jump 6 EVs as Nevada moves from Toss Up to Lean Obama.

[PennSkinsFan]

I big flip this morning. With a new Quinnipiac poll showing Obama +10 in Ohio, that is affirming other recent polls that Ohio has slipped away from Romney, out of toss up, and into lean Obama. Quinnipiac is also affirming some other polls that are showing a widening of Obama lead in Florida. Today's Florida poll has Obama +9. Finally, Quinnipiac poll on Pennsylvania affirms what the last 5 PA polls have shown, PA is getting pretty safe for Obama, another double digit lead. Romney internals must be showing the same thing since his campaign and SUPER PACS affiliated with Romney have pulled TV out of PA. Unfortunately for Romney, he can't rely on the Governor in PA to help out. Gov. Corbett has a mere 26% approval rating.

[PennSkinsFan]

And after the third straight poll showing Obama with a 7 or more point lead in Iowa, we move Iowa to Lean Obama. Obama now leads with 277 to 191.

[PennSkinsFan]

Another state to keep an eye on is Arizona. With Battlegrounds shrinking and Obama gaining commanding lead in once battle grounds like Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio, the Obama campaign is looking to start spending cash in Arizona.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have made a swap. New Hampshire moves to Lean Obama and Iowa move from Lean Obama back to TOSSUP. It is a net loss of 2 for Obama

[PennSkinsFan]

Missouri Senate seat is moving from TOSS UP to LEAN DEM as incumbent Claire McCaskill is looking safe with consistent 6 point leads.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the Arizona Senate Race from Lean Republican to TOSS UP.

[AubieTom]

So Barack has 275 does that mean there is no reason to vote?

[PennSkinsFan]

So Barack has 275 does that mean there is no reason to vote?

Nah. Just a fun estimate based on latest polls. This thing will shift so much over the next month as swing state polls fluctuate. It has already shifted a few times. Just a fun thing to do.

[PennSkinsFan]

So Barack has 275 does that mean there is no reason to vote?

We did it four years ago and were pretty damn close. Within a week of the Election, I will get rid of Toss Ups and make a call on each one and see where our projection lands compared to actual results. We were withing 10 electoral votes in 2008.

[PennSkinsFan]

Latest swing state polls show some movement toward Romney after the debate in FLA, OH, and VIR. We will see what the impact is in a few days on the unemployment rate falling to 7.8%

We have shifted Ohio back to TOSS UP from Lean Obama, netting a 18 EV loss to Obama.

[PennSkinsFan]

North Dakota senate seat becomes a toss up with a new poll showing race tied t 47-47

[PennSkinsFan]

One movement today,. one getting ready to move. We have moved Pennsylvania from Safe Obama to Lean Obama. We are getting ready to move NC. Latest poll shows Romney +9, however, four prior polls were 1 point leads. Need to see another one before moving to Lean Romney.

[PennSkinsFan]

It appears right now that the Debate bounce has held in some states and dissipated in others. Nevada and NH have become more competitive. However, the close pols in Ohio that were showing a Romney 1 or 2 point lead with THUR and FRI post debate callers, recent polls without those THUR and FRI calls are showing Obama at +2 to +4. Also, Virginia and Florida are remaining as consistent as prior tot he debate with Obama leading anywhere
between 1-3 points. It was like that prior tot he debate with a few outliers.

So while there is a clear post-debate bounce nationally, in some of the key swing state polls, we are seeing that bounce slip.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the Florida Senate race from Lean DEM to Safe DEM. Recent polls are showing Dem Incumbent ill Nelson with double digit leads over Connie Mack. This one looks like it is in the bag.

[AubieTom]

Up to 25,000 jobless claims in California were not included in the report. Apparently they came in too late, no worries they will be added in one of next two reports.

[PennSkinsFan]

Getting close to moving Ohio back to Lean Obama. Last few polls are showing Obama up 4 to 7 points. It appears, according to our polls we track and analysts, that Romney did not get a big debate bounce in Ohio. Possible because of the auto bailout,

[PennSkinsFan]

Obama loses 10 more. We have moved WISC from Lean Obama to Toss Up. The poll was taken before debate 2. Rasmussen Swing State poll has shown a daily tracker of swing states has changed 5 points over the last week. From 10/9 to 10/14, Romney had a consistent +2 after debate 1. Today the swing state trackers shows Obama +3. Yesterday it was at Obama +2. That's a five point swing and took the swing state tracker back to the same +3 as before. Rasmussen is a GOP leaning firm, so that is pretty significant. At least in the swing states, it appears the bounce may have dissipated. THis weekend, we will begin to see if Obama will receive any bounce from the second debate,

While we move WISC to Toss Up, we are one poll away from possibly moving Ohio back to Lean Obama and possibly moving Iowa to Lean Obama. The second debate may force those moves. We shall see.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the Nevada Senate seat from Toss Up to Lean GOP. Looks like incumbent GOP Sen Heller is getting safer.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved an additional US Senate race, which would represent a DEM pick up. WE have moved MASS to Lean DEM. Elizabeth Warren is surging over GOP incumbent Scott Brown, now opening a 9 point lead.

[PennSkinsFan]

Mitt Romney picks up 15 EVs. We have moved NC from Toss Up to Lean Romney. We not have the race at 237 Obama -206 Romney, and 95 Toss Up

[PennSkinsFan]

Interesting. Wisconsin poll that had sample of 10/11 to 10/14 had Obama one point lead, new Wisconsin poll with sample from10/15 to 10/17, post debate, has Obama up 6

[PennSkinsFan]

Another debate bounce? Obama +4 in Iowa before debate, poll released tonight with all post debate sample has Obama jumping +8

[PennSkinsFan]

First movement for Barack Obama in awhile. Obama gains 6 EVs. WE have moved Nevada from Toss Up to Lean Obama.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the ND Senate race to Lean GOP. A poll on 10/8 showed a tie, but a poll today showed Berg +10. WE think this is an easy GOP seat, but we will move to Safe GOP if we see one additional poll showing the race at +8 or more.

[PennSkinsFan]

One thing we promise, the night before the election, we will have no Toss Ups. We will call all states and then see where the chips fall election night. We were pretty close to the results in 2008 in our old forum, a mere 8 electoral votes off. We shall do the same here.

[PennSkinsFan]

Plethora of swing state polls today.

Ohio polls range from a Romney +1 lead to an Obama +5 lead. Overall, it appears to be a 2-3 point Obama lead.

Pennsylvania, range of four polls released today range from Obama +3 to Obama +10. What does it mean? What do people tell me in PA, since I am in PA and was involved, PA is going to go to Obama, the question is, how big.

New Hampshire was a bit of a surprise today. According to University of NH, Obama has gone from a +1 lead after debate #1 to a +9 after second debate. Obama has not seen much debate bounce, but NH could be one state he did.

Two polls in WISC give Obama +3 to +5 lead.

[PennSkinsFan]

Welcome to the show NBC News. You are now at 243-206-89. We have been at that for 2 weeks.

Plus, the Toss Ups we have had listed for three weeks have pretty much been what both Presidential campaigns agree are the remaining toss ups.

Looks like we have been pretty damn accurate thus far.

[PennSkinsFan]

TIME released an Ohio poll today with all samples taken post debate 3. They show an Obama lead of +5. They also have early voting in their poll at 60-30 for Obama

[PennSkinsFan]

We are moving Nevada senate race back from Lean GOP to TOSS UP. Latest poll released today is a dead lock tie and early voting gives DEM Berkley a 51-39 advantage over Sen. Heller. Early voting could be the decider in this one. Depends on how many have early voted.

[PennSkinsFan]

The last two polls in VIR show Oabma +5 and +7. PPP poll is showing a clear debate bounce in its first poll that is completely done after the third debate. Their poll prior to the third debate had Obama +2. This one has Obama +5.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved North Carolina from Lean Romney back to Toss Up. Last two polls show Obama +3 and dead even tie. This lowers Romney from 206 EVs to 191.

We are close to moving Wisconsin from Toss Up to Lean Obama

[PennSkinsFan]

According to multiple polls today, it is appearing more than likely that Barack Obama may have received a post-debate bounce. First, in daily trackers, with the PPP poll, Obama moves to a one point lead for the first time in three weeks. At Gallup, the mystifying 7 point Romney lead has narrowed to 3.

State polls were very good for Obama today. PA and Wisconsin show +6 for Obama. Iowa shows +2 for Obama but a 68-32 lead with early voters. A new Virginia poll shows Obama expanding a lead to 5, that follows a poll by TIME in Virginia showing Obama at +6.

Whatever post debate 1 Romney momentum that occurred has not only apparently subsided, but in some battleground states like WISC and VA, Obama appears to have received a bounce.

Finally, we move North Carolina back to TOSS UP from Lean Romney. Two days ago a poll was released that showed Obama +3. Today, a new poll shows a dead even tie. Good enough to make that a toss up.

[PennSkinsFan]

Latest polling in Mass looks like Scott Brown is toast. Fourth straight poll showing Warren leading by +5 or more. Latest has he leading by 5, but even better, at 52%

[PennSkinsFan]

We have added a surprising Senate seat. Nebraska has gone from SAFE GOP to LEAN GOP. two polls taken today shw the race within 3 points. It looked like a safe GOP pick, and likely will be, but these two different polls show significant tightening.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the Connecticut Senate seat from Toss Up to LEAN DEM. Chris Murphy is beginning to pull away from Linda McMahon.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the North Dakota Senate race back to TOSS UP from Lean GOP. A new poll released today has the Republican Senator leading by just 2 points. That follows a poll a few days ago showing the lead down to 5 points. The two points is well within the margin of error of the poll, and that is back to back polls showing DEM challenger Heitkamp

[PennSkinsFan]

After a release of big time battleground polls this morning, two states have gone to over 3.0 polling averages. For the first time in two weeks, we move states. The President has picked up 16 EVs. We move Iowa and Wisconsin from Toss Up to LEAN OBAMA.

The race now stands at

Obama 259
Romney 191
Tossup 88

Additionally, the true battleground Toss Ups are Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. These states were leaning Obama before the first debate. Then they began moving toward Romney after the first debate. Since then, Romney momentum ebbed and these states are near dead ties. You can throw Colorado in that mix as well.

[PennSkinsFan]

We waited until the last minute, but we finally flip Ohio to Lean Obama from Toss Up. This state is not a Toss Up by any sense of the word. Polling averages of late consistently have this state at 4 to 5 point Obama lead and all those polls are also showing a substantial Obama advantage in early voting. There is a reason that the Super PACS are concentrating on PA. Because they lost Ohio. Bleed stopper.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved the Indiana senate race from Toss Up to LEAN DEM. Donnelly has opened up an 11 point lead over Mourdock, more than likely, resulting from his rape comments. This is an Open GIOP seat created by the defeat in the primary of Richard Lugar. This seat could pad an already assumed DEM majority in the US Senate.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved New Hampshire from Toss Up to LEAN OBAMA. Polling averages now have Obama leading +3.5. That moves Barack Obama to 281, Mitt Romney at 191 and just 66 left in toss ups.

[PennSkinsFan]

We have moved Minnesota from Lean Obama to Safe Obama. I don't believe this state was really ever in play, nor do I believe Michigan or Pennsylvania are in play.

[PennSkinsFan]

Time to put our projections out there the weekend before the election. Monday we will have all final projection with no toss ups.

Senate races:

Lean DEMS:

Connecticut
Indiana
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania

We are projecting them DEMOCRAT.

[PennSkinsFan]

If the President does not win Florida, our polling averages and trends we watched since August was a damn accurate forecast. We would have been DEAD ON in all states. If Obama wins Florida then we had ONLY ONE state wrong, Florida.

Just like 2008, polls count, polls were accurate, polling averages were even more accurate, and once again, the outlier was Gallup.