2008-09 Record: 19-63, 5th in the Southeast Division

Key Additions: Coach Flip Saunders, G/F Mike Miller, G Randy Foye, F/C Fabricio Oberto

Key Losses: Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov

Gilbert Arenas

He’s trying to come back from 3 major knee surgeries that have wiped out the last two seasons and almost his entire career. When healthy, Arenas is a spectacular scorer who can get to the rim against almost anyone. With the wealth of scoring options on the roster now, the team needs Gil to distribute more, even if it means his scoring average falls from the high-20s to the low-20s. Arenas also needs to focus on being a great basketball star instead of a media star and he needs to make a real effort on defense from time to time.

Nick Young

Despite an offseason of talk about Nick Young devoting himself to basketball and taking over the shooting guard position, it’s not clear how much progress, if any, Young has made. He’s still happy-go-lucky, he still dishes very few assists and he’s still an inconsistent defender — to put it kindly. Young has developed a nice jumper off the curl, but he has yet to prove he can be counted on to score 15+ points on a nightly basis. Young could be a key part of Flip Saunders’ rotation or he could find himself riding the pine most nights.

DeShawn Stevenson

Saunders appreciates Stevenson’s grit and moxie and willingness to get rough, nasty and play defense. These are qualities in very short supply on the Wizards and Stevenson, if his back is fully healed, is the team’s best perimeter defender in the backcourt. His shot is ugly and has gotten uglier, but it could improve with Gil back, attracting double teams and leaving Stevenson open for good looks from the 3-point line. Don’t be surprised if Stevenson is back from the ashes and starting every game.

Caron Butler

The All Star forward is slimmer and healthier than ever before and promises a huge season. He scored 21 ppg last year and his determination and leadership more than makes up for questionable ball-handling skills. Butler has had major problems staying healthy, but if he can give the Wizarsd 70+ games this year, the team will be happy and in the playoffs.

Antawn Jamison

The Captain is the leader of this team on the court. He’s hard-working, soft-spoken, professional and dependable every single night. He’s also injured, which is a novelty. Jamsion will miss the first 3-5 weeks of the season, taking him out of at least 10 games. No other front court player can score and stretch the field like Jamison can so his replacements must provide superior defense. Washington will miss his 20 points and 9 rebounds every single night.

Dominic McGuire

A versatile defender and rebounder who runs the floor very well and can finish above the rim. He’s physical and tough and doesn’t shy away from contact with anyone. Because of his size and athleticism, McGuire can guard most forwards and many guards. His shot isn’t there and his lack of offense is what keeps him in the bench. If he can find a shot that forces defenses to guard him, Saunders will have to play McGuire because his defense and rebounding is so valuable [and needed].

Mike Miller

Miller needs to bounce back from a sub-par year and he probably will. One of the best outside and free throw shooters in recent years, Miller can fill the basket quickly and on a team with players like Arenas and Butler, Miller should get the looks he needs. Miller is not a great athlete, but he’s better than many think and his superior passing for a man his size makes him valuable on the court. Miller is also a pretty good rebounder for a man his size who plays exclusively below the rim.

Andray Blatche

Who knows which Blatche will show up this year? Or next week? Or even tonight? If Blatche is committed and plays hard, he will get a ton of minutes with Jamison beginning the season on the shelf. Blatche is capable of scoring, blocking shots, defending and rebounding well enough to hold down the power forward slot, but he doesn’t do it consistently. If he becomes more consistent this season, the Wizards will be better than most people suspect.

Javaris Crittenton

He’s been injured for much of the offseason and is probably behind the other players. Crittenton is quick, sees the floor well and has good size for his position. He’s also an unselfish player who can push the ball and move it around. That’s good because his shot is so ugly it hurts to look at it. Crittenton will probably see a lot of pine time early in the season and perhaps for the entire season.

Mike James

Allegedly, James has shown some improvement this offseason, but I really don’t see it. James doesn’t pass well, is an average ball-handler and his shot is brutal. So is his shot selection, which calls to mind something of the mad bomber. He can get hot from time to time, but that doesn’t make up for the horrid defense and the 4-14 shooting most nights. The less James plays, the better the Wizards will be.

Randy Foye

Hopefully, any minutes James might have gotten will go to Randy Foye and then some. Foye has improved every year in the league and he’s a hard-working combo guard who can defend his position, whatever it may be. He’s not a great ball-handler and he can’t finish in the lane, so he’s not the player you want at the point all the time, but he’s ideal to fill in at that spot a few minutes each game while also contributing at shooting guard. He’s a nice one-on-one player who can help when Arenas is on the bench.

Fabricio Oberto

The classic below-the-rim player, Oberto has an NBA championship ring and an Olympic gold medal [2004] to his credit. He’s got pretty good size [6'10 and 250 lbs] and is willing to use everything he’s got to fight for position or the ball. He’ll set all the screens, take all the charges and get all the ugly points you want. THe less he shoots, the better and because of a heart condition, you don’t want him playing more than 20 minutes a night. Actually, that’s not the only reason you want him playing less than 20 minutes, but it is one reason.

Brendan Haywood

Washington’s defense is capble of being mediocre with Haywood healthy and on the floor. Without Haywood, the Wiz don’t defend at all. Haywood shoots pretty well from close in and he’s improved his free throw shooting. He’s a very good defender and shot-blocker, though he’s no more than average as a rebounder. Arguably the smartest player on the team, the Wiz are a much better team with a healthy Haywood.

Javale McGee

A high-flying human highlight film who has no idea how or where to play NBA defense. McGee is a ridiculous athlete who can finish above the rim, run the floor, block shots and do other things to get himself on SportsCenter. What he doesn’t do is get good position or even stay in good position on defense. McGee is hugely talented, but he’s still incredibly raw and is likely to spend a lot of time on the bench until Saunders trusts him some more.

SUMMARY

The Wizards will be in good shape if Arenas, Jamison, Haywood and Butler all play at least 70 games [most of them together]. If things go right, the team could win as many as 50 games this year. However, the transition to getting Gil back, including the new players and learning Saunders’ unfamiliar offense and defense is likely to take its toll, particularly early in the season when the schedule is particularly brutal.

Wizards fans shouldn’t panic if the team gets off to to a slow start. If they’re in pretty good position and healthy after the calendar year, Washington should be dangerous and could possibly finish as high as 4th in the Eastern Conference.

PREDICTION

The Wizards will struggle with a new system and a tough schedule in November and the loss of Jamison will hurt them more than some fans undertand. However, there is too much talent on the roster and the coaching staff for this team to fail, barring a rash of, well, Wizards-like, injuries.

I predict the Wizards will finish 47-35 and finish 4th or 5th in the Eastern Conference. They will win one playoff series and lose in the second round.

2009-10 Roster