Mocking the Draft: The Football Expert interview

 DC PRO SPORTS REPORT: Mike, how do you put together your mock draft?   

THE FOOTBALL EXPERT: I start my draft with 2 things: the official draft order and a list of my top 500 prospects. And I begin my draft from the very beginning with Detroit.  And the important thing readers need to know is this mock draft is NOT what I would do, but what I think the NFL teams will do.  When I am drafting for Detroit at #1, I am trying to think what the Lions will do.  My player analysis and rankings are important, but it doesn’t matter if I love Matthew Stafford and I think the Lions will go with Jason Smith, I am going to put Jason Smith because that is what I think they will do (that was an example, not necessary what I will think).  

I will NOT project trades, because trades are very unpredictable and it will mess up the draft order.  I know many teams have a high importance on value like the Pats.  They will take a player even if they don’t have an immediate need at that position.  I have analyzed certain picks for hours.  Sometimes if I am trying to decide a pick for a certain team, I will create two “What if” situations by going 2-3 rounds deep in each situation to decide which pick will be the most beneficial to the draft overall.

DC PRO SPORTS REPORT: Who do you think will be the first overall pick in the draft.  As a follow up, what do YOU think the Detroit Lions should actually do with the pick? 

THE FOOTBALL EXPERT: I still think the Lions will go with Matthew Stafford.  The Lions have a luxury of having that #20 pick.  With that, they can get a solid offensive tackle such as Eben Britton or William Beatty.  If the Lions take an OT with the 1^st pick, there is no guarantee that any of the top 3 QBs will be available.  After the top 3 QBs, there is a major drop off in talent.  I think the Atlanta Falcons showed that you can take the QB first and the OT 2^nd.  The Lions may take a defender at #20, expecting a solid OT to be available at pick 33.  I believe the Lions will take Stafford with the top pick after evaluating what I just mentioned, but if they feel they can get Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe cheaper they may go that route.  I think the Lions have far more faith in Daunte Culpepper than all of us.   
 
DC PRO SPORTS REPORT: Mike, can you give us some thoughts on what positions, both offense and defense are strong in the draft, which ones appear to be weak this year? 

THE FOOTBALL EXPERT: Strong -

DE/OLB hybrid.  This draft will be remembered for all of the great tweeners in this draft.  We have Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Connor Barwin, Michael Johnson, Larry English, Cody Brown, and possibly Robert Ayers, even though I prefer him in the 4-3.  With so many teams moving to a 3-4 defense, this is the perfect draft for these players and fortunate for these teams that there is so much depth.   

On offense, this team has great depth an OT.  After the stud four, I still like Eben Britton, William Beatty, Jamon Meredith, and Phil Loadholt, and Fenuki Tupou as solid tackles.  Many of them could be first round draft picks in other years.  Look for there to be another run on offensive tackles because the OT has become the must need position in the NFL.  I see teams drafting offensive tackles  high, even if the position is not an immediate need because offensive tackles are valued that much. 

Weak -

Quarterback.  It is hard to believe that the top senior quarterbacks are Pat White and Rhett Bomar, both may not get drafted higher than the 3^rd round.  Mark Sanchez even mentioned part of the reason he declared was because of the weak crop of quarterbacks in this year draft.  I really am high on Stafford and think he could be a great player, but after that I am not sold on any of the others.  Mark Sanchez only had 1 year of fulltime starting experience and he is projected as a top 20 pick.  He has the skills, but in almost any other draft his experience would probably drop him to the 2^nd round.  The top 3 Quarterbacks will probably get drafted higher than expected because after them, there are slim pickings.   

ILB – After Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis there is a major drop off in talent.  There could be as little as five ILBs being drafted in the top 4 rounds. Jason Phillips recent injury didn’t help matters as many considered him a 3^rd round prospect.   
 
DC PRO SPORTS REPORT: Can you name a player that you think should go higher than they actually will?  On the opposite end, who is the overrated pick, who will go much higher than they should?  >

THE FOOTBALL EXPERT: Underrated – Devin Moore, RB, Wyoming.  I love this player.  Super fast, will be an instant start as a kick returner.  I believe could be a great 3^rd down running back.  Moore wasn’t even invited to the Combine.  I would consider drafting him in the 5^th round, but in my current mock draft I project him going in the 7^th round.  One of my biggest sleepers in the draft. 

Overrated – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida -   I think Percy Harvin is an excellent and exciting player.  He though is not a natural receiver and will never be a number 1 in the NFL.  He is better as a slot and to be used in short/screen passes.  He doesn’t fit in every system.  I really have been targeting Harvin to Minnesota because he would be used in the slot not as the deep threat that most top drafted receivers are.  Teams also will hope he can run the wildcat.  Devin Hester is probably the best comparison and he was a 2^nd round pick.   I do think he could be a very special player, but I would not invest a first round pick unless my team had the luxury to. 
 
DC PRO SPORTS REPORT: There is a ton of talk about these offensive tackles.  Who do you think is the best of the bunch?  

THE FOOTBALL EXPERT: Such a hard question.  Teams evaluate best player by two definitions: best player right now and best potential.  If I was drafting a player right now wanting a guy to start immediately I would draft Eugene Monroe out of Virginia.  He has the best technique and fundamentals and can start from day 1 at LT, such a hard task to do.  If I had the chance to groom my prospect at guard or behind a veteran tackle, I would draft Michael Oher.  Oher is a physical specimen and if he is able to improve his fundamentals and maintain focus he could be great.  I am talking about Orlando Pace and Jonathan Ogden great.  I like him to Washington because he would have the chance to work with Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen, two excellent role models.  I think starting him at guard may help his transition.  Teams drafting high prefer the safer player such as Monroe.   

DC PRO SPORTS REPORT: Finally, through our affiliation together, you know we cover the Redskins.  For our readers benefit, what do you think the Redskins WILL do and what do you think they SHOULD do? 

THE FOOTBALL EXPERT: I think the Redskins will go line, and draft either an offensive tackle or defensive end.  I think there the only other alternative would be an OLB and that would be only if the top OTs and DEs are off the board.  If Andre Smith or Michael Oher fall to the Skins I think it is a no brainer.  By their next pick in the 3^rdround, there shouldn’t be a great selection at OT compared to DE.  In the 3^rd round, the Redskins may be able to get a DE such as Paul Kruger, Lawrence Sidbury Jr, or David Veikune.  If the top OTs are off the board, I would go with a more 4-3 DE and take Tyson Jackson or Robert Ayers.  

I think the Redskins will do just that.  Of course, with no 2^nd round pick, the Skins will attempt to trade down, which I would recommend.  The Skins could be able to get Oher later on in the first round.  I would not be worried about Andre Smith.  Former Crimson Tide, Chris Samuels would be an excellent role model/teach.  My problem with my opinion is I have tried to set my mind like all 32 NFL teams that I am starting to think like all 32 teams.