The Wizards at halftime « DC Pro Sports Report

Well, the Washington Wizards have played 44 games out of their 82 games this season. [Believe me, they won't be playing any games after those 82.] This means it is time to step back and regard this half a season, trying to figure out where the team is in good shape, where it needs help [ha!] and what the prospects are for the rest of the season [gulp].
The Wizards are near the bottom of the league in points allowed, shooting percentage allowed, assists allowed per game, rebounds per game, and negative rebounding discrepancy. They turn the ball over too often and assist each other too infrequently. Statistically and in the won/loss columns, the Wizards are truly awful. They are the worst team in the Eastern Conference by 7 games in the loss column and the only NBA team that could be said to be worse than Washington is the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers are about as bad. It’s terrible company to be in.
The season began horribly in preseason, when it was announced that Gilbert Arenas would not be playing any time soon and then Brendan Haywood, the team’s starting center and best defender, would probably miss the entire season, as well. Deprived of two critical starters, the Wizards were reeling before the first game of the season began.
The second half of the season is unlikely to look much better than the first half. Gilbert Arenas may or may not return this season, but he won’t be enough to save the Wizards from one of the worst seasons in franchise history. It’s very possible, perhaps likely, that the Wizards will win fewer than 20 games. A high pick in the NBA draft, which seems certain, is about the only comfort fans can draw from his catastrophe.
Let’s run through all the players and grade them on their season so far.
BLATCHE, ANDRAY: Perhaps no player continues to inspire hope and annoyance as much as Blatche. His PER of 16.5 shows he’s making progress and he appears to be playing better now that he’s been forced into the role of starting center. He’s averaging 10.1 ppg and 5.3 rpg in less than 24 minutes per game, though his minutes have increased lately. Blatche needs to be playing at least 30 minutes a game, but that can be difficult due to his tendency to get into foul trouble early. He needs to rebound better [smaller players like Antawn Jamison and Dominic McGuire rebound as well as Blatche does] and play a more physical game and his shot-blocking could definitely improve. Blatche looks like a player who still suffers lapses in concentration and confidence, which isn’t excusable at this stage of his career. Grade: C
BUTLER, CARON: We’ve seen some regression from Tough Juice. It could be that he’s injured or just tired from having to carry too much of the load. He’s definitely doing everything he can right now, as the team’s second-leading scorer and rebounder and leading disher of assists. Butler’s turnovers are up to over 3 per game, but that’s because he’s handling the ball too much due to the absence of Arenas and Antonio Daniels, who was traded earlier this season. Butler is averaging 20 points per game, but his scoring is down a bit. He’s hitting just over 45% of his shots from the field and 86% of his shots from the foul line, so his stroke is still there. He’s not doing as well from long range, hitting barely 30% of his 3-pointers. With the team facing so many big scoring deficits and not having a real low post presence on offense, Butler is taking some 3-pointers that he would not take otherwise. Butler’s Player Efficiency Rating [PER] has fallen to 18.5, a clear sign that the toll of the season is affecting Butler. He’s still averaging better than 6 rebounds and 4 assists per game, so Washington’s stat-filler is still doing his job. Just not as well. Grade: B+

CRITTENTON, JAVARIS: He played sparingly after coming over in the Antonio Daniels trade, but is now getting more minutes. Crittenton is young and very raw, but he’s already nearly as good a passer as starter Mike James, a player with vastly more experienced. He’s also no more likely than James to turn the ball over and while Crittenton can’t shoot [42.6 TS%], James isn’t much better [47.7 TS%]. Crittenton is averaging about 13 minutes a game with the Wizards and it should be higher. Considering how poorly the starter is playing, there is no reason for Crittenton to get less than 20 minutes per game. The Wizards are not likely to win more or less games this year depending on how many minutes Crittenton gets and, therefore, he should get more. Crittenton’s size and athleticism make him an intriguing young player and the Wizards should get as much of a look at him during this dismal season as possible. If not now, when? Crittenton needs to improve his defense, shooting and passing — everything, really — but he’s more likely to do that with time on the court. Grade: C+
DIXON, JUAN: Dixon has played in only 28 games this year despite the fact that when he’s played, he’s played better than any other guard on the roster, apart from Caron Butler. Dixon’s PER of 11.1 is nothing to write home about, but he is the team’s only reliable 3-point shooter, knocking down just over 40% of his attempts. On a 36 per-minute basis, Dixon outscores all guards save Dixon and while he’s more likely than anyone else on the team to turn the ball over, he’s also more likely to get an assist. Dixon is a limited player, a shooting guard in a point guard’s body and you don’t want him playing more than 12-20 minutes per night. Why he gives up minutes to Mike James and, when he was healthy, Deshawn Stevenson, is beyond me. Dixon is what he is and he’ll never be a great defender, but what he is is usually better than the alternative. Grade: C+
JAMES, MIKE: Obviously, I’m not President of the Mike James fan club. For good reason: His PER of 9.5 is lame and his TS% of 47.7 is no better. As a point guard he’s nothing special: he averages 4.4 assists every 36 minutes, little better than Caron Butler or Javaris Crittenton. I know he’s a veteran and coaches love veterans, particularly at the point guard position, but I don’t see the point of playing James 30 minutes a night, which is what he’s getting now. His production doesn’t come close to meriting that much playing time and his age and career trajectory make it obvious he’s a short-timer in Washington. His contract was close to the contact of Antonio Daniels — that’s why he was in that trade. He’s a throw-in and should be given the playing time a throw-in merits. Grade: D-
JAMISON, ANTAWN: The Captawn is clearly the team MVP so far this season. Leading the team in scoring and rebounding, Jamison hasn’t missed a game despite battling various ailments for much of the past month. His rebounding is down a bit as a result of injuries to an arm, but his shooting percentage from the field is up. He battles bigger and stronger players night in and night out, but he’s still playing at an All Star level. His hard work and professionalism should be a model for the younger players on the team, though one wonders if guys like Blatche and Nick Young ever notice anything beyond their own noses. How good is Jamison? His PER, at 20.5, is almost 2 points higher than Butler, who is second on the team. Grade: A
McGEE, JAVALE: McGee got 13 starts early in the season after Coach Tapscott wised up and benched Etan Thomas. After being benched himself for Andray Blatche, though, McGee has sometimes struggled to get on the court. Tapscott has indicated the problem is making mistakes in practice, though it is difficult to see what the team gains from leaving McGee on the bench. He’s clearly a better player than his draft position would indicate. He’s the best rebounder on the team right now, as well as the best shot-blocker. His TS % isn’t great [51%], but it’s not horrible for a rookie with only 2 years of college. Again, the issue is that the Wizards are not going to win many games whether McGee plays 5 minutes a night or 35 minutes a night, so why not give him as much time as possible? It looks like the team might actually get something out of a big man taken in the second half of the first round [ahem, Oleksiy Pecherov], so get him on the floor and let him get his mistakes out of the way. Tapscott insists that he’s not leaving McGee on the bench out of insubordination or bad practice habits. If that’s the case, then play the kid. A lot. Every night. Grade: B+
McGUIRE, DOMINIC: Give Ed Tapscott credit for doing something nobody saw coming: Putting Run DMc into the starting lineup. When Caron Butler moved to shooting guard in place of the super-sluming [and now injured] Deshawn Stevenson, McGuire moved into the starting quick forward slot in place of Butler. We’ve seen some development of McGuire. His defense is good and getting better. He is arguably the second-best rebounder on the team right now, after McGee. He runs the floor well and hard and takes very few poor shots. Of course, he takes few shots in general. His 10.7 PER isn’t great, but it is still better than Mike James, Deshawn Stevenson or Etan Thomas. Ideally, McGuire is an energy guy off the bench who grabs offensive and defensive rebounds, comes up with a steal or two and plays suffocating defense on the other team’s best perimeter scorer. But with the injuries the Wizards have suffered this year, McGuire has been pushed into a starting role and that’s a good thing for now. The Wizards are finding out a lot about this guy and they can see that his offensive game is still limited and needs work. He’s very athletic, though, and if he practices hard enough to start hitting an outside shot, McGuire will be a valuable player indeed. Grade: B
PECHEROV, OLEKSIY: There isn’t much to write about OPec. He hardly plays. He’s been on the court in only 10 games and averages less than 7 minutes per appearance. He looks like a pretty decent rebounder, but he’s not an accurate shooter and doesn’t play defense. Looks like a wasted pick to me. Grade: F
SONGAILA, DARIUS: An accomplished passer and shooter, there is no doubt the offense runs more smoothly when Songaila is in the game. On the other hand, he doesn’t play much defense and isn’t a very good rebounder. Darius’ 12.2 PER indicates he’s the sort of guy you want playing limited minutes in the front court — sort of like Juan Dixon in the back court. Songaila shoots very well and never takes a bad shot. He’ll make the extra pass and is very good at finding cutters. He’s a very solid offensive player. Everything else, though, is problematic. Nevertheless, he does basically what he was hired to do. It’s just that there isn’t much of a place for it on this team anymore. With Blatche and McGee on the team, Songaila just shouldn’t be playing that much. Grade: B-
STEVENSON, DESHAWN: Deshawn seems lost this year. He’s hurt right now and has missed 14 games, but he was benched before going down with injury. His PER is less than 8, so that’s truly atrocious. His TS% of about 41% is hideous and the worst on the team. For all the talk about his defense, Stevenson has become a genuinely awful player. When he was playing next to Mike James in the starting lineup, it gave the Wizards arguably the worst shooting back court in NBA history. Deshawn was never much of a shooter, but he turned himself into a passable offensive player by working on his foul shots and being able to knock down the open 3-pointer. He’s not doing either of those things. His foul shooting has inexplicably declined by about 20 percentage points and he hits fewer than 29% of his 3-pointers. In other words, he’s so awful offensively that no measure of defense can make up for it. When he comes back from injury, he should play very little. Stevenson looks to me like he’s playing his way out of the NBA — except for that guaranteed contract of his. Grade: F
THOMAS, ETAN: He seems like a good person and he’s had some rotten injury luck, which continues to this very moment. However, to be blunt, Etan Thomas just isn’t a very good NBA player. His passing is non-existent, he turns the ball over too much, he walks too much, and he’s not a good one-on-one defender. He can shoot a bit from the low blocks and his rebounding is pretty decent. Otherwise, though, the picture isn’t pretty. Thomas is just too much of a defensive liability to leave on the court for long so it was a relief when he was benched earlier in the year. He should never return to the starting lineup and should be basically an 11th or 12th man for the rest of his career with the Bullets. Grade: D-
YOUNG, NICK: Is the light going to come on for this talented player? Or, more accurately, will it stay on? The light came on briefly earlier this month when Young scored career-highs in points in 3 games within a week. He hasn’t been able to sustain that, though, and last night was back to hitting 1 of 6 shots in limited minutes. His defense is cursory, his passing sometimes entirely absent and his shot comes and goes. And he doesn’t attack the basket nearly often enough. His 3-point shooting is not reliable or good. Young’s PER of 13.6 indicates how far he has to go. In his second season, Young still doesn’t appear to take the game seriously enough or work hard enough. He’s the Andray Blatche of the back court — a hugely talented athlete who isn’t coming close to his potential due to poor work habits and focus. When Young is in a groove, his jumper is beautiful. We just need to see that groove a lot more often. Grade: C+
SUMMARY: The team is awful. They have lost a lot of games and will lose a lot more. It’s a decent bet the Wizards will lose 60 or more games this season, which is truly horrific. There does not appear to be anything the team can do to prevent this. That being the case, the smart move is to play the kids. Move Javaris Crittenton into the starting lineup — Mike James is awful and old. Play Javale McGee a lot more. Get Nick Young on the court for 30 minutes per game. Play the kids and see how they do. They’re going to lose, but the team is losing anyway.
Washington’s hope is that Gilbert Arenas returns healthy and devastating again; that Brendan Haywood comes back as the top defender he was; that a top draft pick makes the team better, younger and deeper. That’s all the Washington Wizards — and their fans — have right now: hope.