3.0 will be different

This is the third time in 3 years the Washington Bullets will face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs — each time without home court advantage. The teams are different this year, though. The Cavaliers have traded their best backcourt defender, Larry Hughes, and come into the postseason as a lesser defensive team, though still a dominant club on the glass. Washington is a harder team, grittier than in years past after a season of fighting and clawing and scratching for every one of their 43 wins. With Gilbert Arenas missing 67 games and Caron Butler missing 23, the Bullets slowed their pace, played tougher defense, and saw improvement from some of their key veterans and development from some of their kids. One thing hasn’t changed, though: Lebron James is still the best player in the series, blessed with size, power, quickness, dexterity, determination and the favor of the guys with the whistles.
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The Bullets are better than Cleveland is offensively and the Cavs are better than Washington defensively. However, the Bullets — while still not very good — are better defensively this season than last season, while Cleveland is considerably worse on the defensive end. Offensively, Cleveland is about the same as last year. They were 19th in the league in offensive efficiency last year and they’re 19th this year, too.

Daniels isn’t a threat to make the 3 so Cleveland should not double him on the perimeter. Daniels can penetrate and dish and finish, however, and Delonte West does not provide him with a defensive challenge. West is shooting the ball better lately and he runs the Cavs offense reasonably well, but he’s a liability on defense and a severe downgrade from Larry Hughes, who caused all sorts of problems for Gilbert Arenas and Bullets jump shooters. Daniels will not turn the ball over and can be trusted to make smart plays down the stretch.
Advantage: Bullets [narrowly]

Brown is a better slasher than shooter, but he is something of a threat outside. He’s not tall, but he is strong and will not allow Stevenson to muscle him up. [Stevenson may be more focused on Lebron anyway.] Deshawn has become a serious threat from the arc this season and if the Cavs leave him to double Gilbert or Caron or Antawn, Stevenson will make them pay.
Advantage: Bullets [narrowly]

James is the best player in the world and creates a matchup nightmare for whatever team he plays. He can bang down low, is devastating as a slasher and almost unstoppable on the break and in early offense. Butler, when healthy, is an All Star caliber player. He hasn’t been healthy in two months, though, and we don’t know how healthy he is right now. He’s had plenty of rest in the last week or so. James has been bothered by a sore back and his play declined a bit down the stretch. If James is bothered enough by the back that he settles for more jump shots, the Bullets will definitely win this series. To beat the Bullets, James must get himself into the paint regularly. Butler should be enough of a threat that he keeps James busy. Sasha Pavlovic, who has guarded Butler well in the past, is hurt and cannot help the Cavs in this series.
Advantage: Cavaliers

Wallace is a good defensive player, but not the force he once was. He’s also a good rebounder, though he’s somewhat redundant there because Cleveland was already a terrific rebounding team. On offense, though, Wallace remains what he has always been — a complete liability. If Washington can keep Wallace off the offensive glass, he’ll give Cleveland nothing on the offensive end this series. Jamison has clearly been Washington’s MVP this season. He’s defense has improved from horrible to mediocre and he’s been a monster on the boards and brutally consistent as a scorer. He’s had some tough games against Cleveland, but it is Dwight Gooden, not Ben Wallace, that caused Jamison problems. Antawn can pull Wallace away from the basket and do his damage from the perimeter before slashing into the paint and lobbing up those weird runners that only he can hit. Jamison was ferocious against Cleveland in the playoffs last year.
Advantage: Bullets

Big Z is Cleveland’s second-best player and he’s had some insanely good games against Washington this year and in past years. He can score in the post and also pop outside for a 14-[flat]footer. He’s also a solid rebounder going against at team that is very average on the glass. Haywood is having his best season ever and his production has gone up in April. His length and aggressiveness wil bother Z inside and he’s a willing shot-blocker. Haywood also doesn’t mind giving a hard foul or two and don’t be surprised if he decks Lebron James early in this series. Haywood and Z have had some very physical matchups in the past and this one should be no exception. Some very rough play is not out of the question.
Advantage: Cavaliers [narrowly]

Daniel Gibson could give Washington a lot of trouble in this series because he can really shoot behind the arc and Washington can’t defend behind the arc at all. He demolished the Pistons in the playoffs last season and won’t be intimidated by this Bullets team. He won’t do anything but shoot 3-pointers, but against this Bullets team, that could be enough.
Agent Zero is the X factor in this series. How good will he be? This is the stage he’s been waiting for. He demonstrated in Philadelphia earlier this month that he can still take over a game against a pretty decent team so Cleveland must be wary. For Gilbert to truly damage the Cavs he needs to be more than just a perimeter player. He needs to get into the lane, dish, score and get to the free throw line. If Gil is anything like his old self, Cleveland could be in for a long series.
Joe Smith is an overlooked player. He’s having a fine season and probably should be starting over Ben Wallace. Smith can defend, rebound a bit, and step out to hit the jumper. He’s definitely a player who could cause trouble for Jamison and the Bullets in this series. Wally Szczerbiak can be a deadly outside shooter — the perfect complement to Lebron — but he hasn’t been doing that Cleveland. Wally World is shooting well under 40% for the Cavs, but if he gets hot in this series, he can really hurt Washington. Otherwise, he’ll hurt Cleveland with his non-existent defense, passing and rebounding. Anderson Varejao can help the Cavs with his energy, rebounding and defense off the bench, but he’s another offensive liability.
Darius Songaila was a disappointment until about 2 months ago, when he started to really come around. His scoring and rebounding are way up recently and though he’s still not a great rebounder, he can help on the boards and won’t mind muscling up with anyone. His ability to step outside to shoot or pass could cause real problems for Wallace and Varejao. Andray Blatche is a foul-prone turnover machine, but he can also block shots, score from inside and out, and play pretty good defense. Blatche will struggle against Big Z on defense so the Bullets need to keep him playing Varejao and Wallace, who offer no challenge and will allow Bulletproof to roam a bit on help defense. Roger Mason has become a real NBA player this year and is Washington’s best option from behind the arc. If Cleveland doesn’t stay up on Mason, he’ll destroy them the way Gibson busted up Detroit last season. Nick Young can score on virtually anyone, but his defense is suspect and we don’t know how many minutes he’ll get with Gilbert back on the bench.
Advantage: Bullets
Summary: The Cavs are only 15-12 since trading Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden [and others] for Ben Wallace [and others] and I think they’ll regret that trade in this series. Hughes guarded Gilbert Arenas like no one else in the league and Delonte West will not be able to stay with Agent Zero. Gooden’s ability to rebound and hit the outside jumper really bothered Jamison and the Bullets, but Ben Wallace can only rebound and isn’t as comfortable guarding Jamison on the perimeter as Gooden was. In other words, the old Cavs matched up better with Washington than the new Cavs. Lebron James is going to get his points, his rebounds, his assists and more than his fair share of phantom foul calls [don't even start on the traveling non-calls], but unless he turns into a top outside shooter in this series, I don’t think it will be enough. If Arenas and Butler are anywhere close to their pre-injury selves, Washington is in good shape to advance in the playoffs.
Prediction: Bullets in 6