Bullets sprinting and staggering to the finish line

It’s stretch run time for the Washington Bullets — the last 5 games in the regular season before the playoffs begin. Washington could finish anywhere from 4th — if they pass the slumping Cleveland Cavaliers — or 7th — if the streaking Philadelphia 76ers pass them again and the Toronto Raptors pulls themselves off the mat.
At 40-37, Washington is currently 5th in the East, 1 game ahead of Philadelphia and 2 games behind Cleveland. The 5th or 6th seed would be acceptable, yielding matchups against tough, but beatable opponents like Cleveland and Orlando. The 7th seed would result in a brutal matchup against the Detroit Pistons that would almost surely end in a quick dismissal from the playoffs.
In other words, Washington needs to win as many games as it can. Obviously, a 45-37 record would be ideal, if not terribly likely. A 44-38 record would also be good and seems more possible. However, the need to win games must be balanced against the need to rest guard Gilbert Arenas, who is supposed to play no more than 20-25 minutes per night and probably ought not to play twice in 2 nights. Gilbert was held out of the second game of a back-to-back and Washington was still able to crush the D-League-worthy Miami Heat. Another back-to-back looms this coming weekend, with the Detroit Pistons on Friday and the 76ers — who have won 21 of their last 28 games — on Saturday. What to do?
My view is that Gilbert should not play against Detroit and MUST play against the 76ers. Philadelphia is only 1 game behind Washington and holds a 2-1 advantage in head-to-head play this season, which is the first tiebreaker in case both teams finish with identical records. Washington absolutely must defeat the 76ers and even out the season series, while picking up a whole game on Philly. A win against Detroit would be wonderful, but is not as critical as defeating the 76ers.
The other factor is that we don’t know how hard certain teams will play. The Boston Celtics [whom the Bullets play on Wednesday] and Detroit Pistons have both been resting their starters lately, sometimes for entire games. Both teams claim they will play their starters over the next week or so, but we don’t know if that is really true and we don’t know how much those starters will play if they do play. It’s one thing to face Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce for 42 minutes and quite another to face them for 11 minutes. If Garnett, Pierce, Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton and others play limited minutes against Washington, obviously winning those games becomes much easier. [Of course, the Bullets lost at home to the dreadful Milwaukee Bucks, so no game can be taken for granted.]
Washington plays:
Boston Celtics at home on April 9
@ the Detroit Pistons on April 11
Philadelphia 76ers at home on April 12
Indiana Pacers at home on April 14
Orlando Magic on the road on April 16
Philadelphia plays:
Detroit Pistons at home on April 9
Indiana Pacers at home on April 11
Washington Bullets on the road on April 12
Cleveland Cavaliers at home on April 14
Charlotte Bobcats on the road on April 16
Cleveland plays:
New Jersey Nets at home on April 9
Chicago Bulls on the road on April 11
Miami Heat at home on April 13
Philadelphia 76ers on the road on April 14
Detroit Pistons at home on April 16
Washington clearly faces the toughest schedule on those 3 teams, though we don’t know how hard Detroit or Orlando will be playing. Washington, presumably, will be going all out on every night. The Cavaliers have a very weak schedule. The Nets, Bulls and Heat are bad teams. The Pistons will be playing for nothing but pride on the final day of the regular season. Only the road game against Philadelphia on April 14 should pose a serious challenge for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are slumping a bit, but if they don’t sew up the 4th spot in the conference with that weak-ass schedule, then they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs at all.
Washington’s first three games, against Boston, Detroit and Philadelphia, will be tough. Boston and Detroit are both superb teams, but may rest their best players. Philadelphia has given Washington fits this season — Antonio Daniels cannot handle Andre Miller. If they can get through those 3 games with a 2-1 record, Washington will probably be able to finish the season winning 4 of their last 5 games and should have a good shot at the 5th spot in the conference. They MUST beat Philadelphia on the 12!
Philadelphia plays tough games against Detroit, Washington and Cleveland. The Bullets and the Cavs will give the 76ers all they can handle and their recent loss to Atlanta demonstrates that Philly is not invulnerable. Like the Bullets, Philadelphia will be circling that April 12 matchup and calling it a must-win.
Keep in mind that the Bullets own tiebreakers against Cleveland and Toronto, should they finish with an identical record to either of those teams. The tiebreaker against Philadelphia, as noted above, is still to be determined.